25 to 1 – Bet 1 – Cardiff vs Ipswich

We’ve changed the parameters of our ‘route to £1m’ this week, deciding that the necessity for ‘even money’ bets has been preventing us from picking our highest conviction ideas. We’ve decided therefore to make this a ’25-1′ journey…25 bets between (decimal) odds of 1.5 and 2.0 to take us to that magic £million! This way we can pick the result first, then worry about the odds afterwards…rather than the other way round.

First up, we’ve chosen THTP’s very own ITFC as the proverbial lamb to the slaughter…

“Both these teams had contrasting results last weekend, Cardiff fell to a “giant killing” upset as non-league Macclesfield progressed past them to the fourth round, whereas Ipswich put up a spirited display against Aston Villa and were only denied a replay by a late goal. Despite concerns about the form slate being wiped clean after a cup or international break, this is one match where I’m struggling to see how Town can prevail against the best home record in English football. Cardiff rested their full starting XI in the cup and they’ll be anxious to maintain their seven point gap and secure their season’s aim of promotion.” (Dr. Z)

Cardiff have taken a phenomenal 36 from 39 points at home and will welcome key players Peter Whittingham, Andrew Taylor and Tommy Smith back into their squad. Cardiff have shipped just 8 goals at home this season and, in Ipswich, they face the Championship’s weakest away attack (just 11 goals scored). Ipswich also possess the league’s worst defensive record away from home.

Although Ipswich have shown some promise on the road recently, we believe the 1.72 on offer for a Cardiff win is too good to turn down. We hope they can get us off to a winning start this time!

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