25 to 1 – Bet 3 (23 to go)- Arsenal vs Bayern Munich

Having narrowly avoided too much fall-out from Arsenal’s dismal defeat to Blackburn on the weekend, we’re now taking the plunge and entrusting our third bet in our 25 to one series to the mid-week clash at the Emirates. And in short, we’re backing goals…

Our view is that there’s surely no way in hell that Arsenal are going to beat Munich away…so they need a result at home…and they’ll prob need to score twice to even have a look in. Wenger has got to know this. There is surely zero point in drawing 0-0 or even winning 1-0 at home? If they go for a few goals, our thinking is that they are more liable to concede as well.

Some stats that we hope vindicate our decision:

-The Gooners managed to score in all but one of their 6 CL group matches (albeit unfortunate that the one game they failed to score in was at home to Schalke!)

-In total this season, they’ve failed to score in 5 of their 19 home games in all competitions (against Blackburn, City, Swans, Schalke and Sunderland). However, they’ve scored 33 Premier League goals at home this season, which is 2nd only to Man Utd and comfortably clear of everyone else.

-In terms of conceding goals at home, Arsenal have shipped 18 goals at home – of the teams currently outside of the relegation zone, only Swansea and Villa have conceded more at home.

-Unsurprisingly, Bayern cruised their group which included Lille, Borisov and Valencia. They scored in every game, with 15 in total.

-They only managed one clean sheet though and that was against bottom of the table Lille (who only scored 4 times in their 6 games).

-Munich have pretty much sown up the Bundesliga already – they lead Dortmund by 15 points with 12 games to go! Their away form is ludicrous having won 10 and drawn 1 of their games. Somehow they’ve conceded just one goal in those 11 away games (in the 1-1 draw with Nurenburg in case you were wondering!) -but we’re taking that to mean they’re due a bit of ill-luck defending their own goal!

So, all in all, it would be a huge surprise if Munich don’t manage to score at least one goal and, given Arsenal’s home scoring record and the fact that Valencia managed to score 1 and Borisov managed to score 3 at home against Munich in the group stage, Arsenal should also bag themselves a goal.

£61.92 – Both teams to score – 1.66

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